Weather: Will Winter Be Cold In 2022-2023?
While our power grid is under stress this year, weather conditions will be key to avoiding power outages during the winter. At a time when many French people are wondering if winter will be cold in 2022-2023, Meteo France forecasters are beginning to provide some answers.
Winter conditions return in December
While October and November 2022 were milder than normal, weather forecasters expected to see temperatures drop in December.
And indeed, the winter onslaught began in early December with an average temperature of 4.39°C in France on Friday, December 3, 2022.
This cold weather, which is expected to continue until the middle of December, has also led to the appearance of the first snowflakes as far as the plains.
Strong contrasts between the North and the South of the country
Although we cannot yet say with certainty that the winter of 2022-2023 will be colder than previous winters, we are already seeing the arrival of winter temperatures over part of France.
Not all French people are in the same boat and, as is often the case, the Mediterranean rim is relatively spared from the cold. The month of December 2022 should moreover be characterized by strong temperature contrasts between the north of France and the Mediterranean.
Over northern France, conditions should be rather anticyclonic, with dry and cold weather. On the other hand, disturbances will be able to circulate around the Mediterranean and precipitation should be expected in the south and southeast.
Cold weather before a thaw
While winter has not yet officially begun, you may be wondering if December 2022 will be colder than usual...
In the first half of December, the cold could become more pronounced, with the descent of a very cold air mass from northern Europe around December 10.
The cold could then become widespread in France during the week of December 12 to 18 and settle in a more lasting way in the northern half of the country. The reliability of this forecast is about 50%. Temperatures could 'oscillate strongly during the week at the mercy of disturbances', according to Meteo-France.
In the second half of December, some weather sites predicted a slow general thaw, which would give hope for fairly mild temperatures for the holiday season. The first week of the Christmas vacations could be milder, with temperatures above seasonal norms.
Before imagining a Christmas on the balcony, be aware that forecasters from Météo-France remain cautious and announce that 'no dominant scenario is currently emerging' for the period from December 19, 2022 to January 1, 2023.
Overall, the average temperatures in December should be within the seasonal norm.
Temperatures close to seasonal norms
On a quarterly basis as well, Meteo France is forecasting temperatures close to seasonal normals. Although the stresses on our power grid and energy prices have many French people fearing a colder winter in 2022-2023, the 3-month trends are rather reassuring.
Note:Each month, the official weather and climate service in France announces the average weather conditions for the next 3 months, in terms of temperature and precipitation. These are not weather forecasts in detail, but simply an assumption of the most likely scenario among three possible scenarios (close, below or above normal).
For the months of December 2022, January 2023 and February 2023, 'the most likely scenario' according to Meteo France and to have on France 'temperatures close to climatological normals'.
Of course, these trends are average over the quarter and do not exclude the alternation of episodes punctually colder and milder, with temperatures that may be locally below the seasonal normals.
While these seasonal trends may be cause for a smile because they are always general and not very accurate, it is important to know that they are becoming increasingly reliable. Their reliability now exceeds 60%.
For the summer of 2022, weather forecasters had thus announced several months in advance a large-scale drought and temperatures well above seasonal norms.
